2020 NHL Entry Draft: Depth Assessment

I realise the 2020 NHL Entry draft has been postponed until a date currently unknown but I had intended to start this long overdue lead up to the draft for some time now and wanted to started with this prologue – rather than jump head-first into player profiles, let us explore what the Ducks need and what they are likely to target at the 2020 NHL Entry Draft when it happens eventually in Montreal.

The Facts

It sounds like a broken record and I am pretty sure I said this ad nauseam in parts of my analysis in the build up to last year’s draft but the Ducks need goal scorers. Pure goal scorers. With the Covid19-shortened regular season now potentially cancelled the Ducks finished 26th overall in Goals For with 182 goals. Only San Jose, Columbus, Dallas, LA and Detroit were worse. They also finished 29th in Goals For/Games Played scoring 2.56 goals per game, only LA and Detroit were worse. They were dead last in Goals For at 5 on 4 and all of that plus comments from the most recent STH Q&A session leads to another clue that gives a pretty good idea of what Bob Murray will be looking for at the next Draft. Power Play specialists and Snipers. If we look at the most recent Trade Deadline in which Murray made six moves of a record breaking 32 deal day you can see a trend that backs up the comments he made both at the Season Ticket Holders session and in the Press Conference following deadline day.

Out: Kase, Grant, Ritchie, Sprong, Holzer, Shore, Redmond

In: Backes + Andersson, Criscuolo, Heinen, Djoos, Irwin, Milano, Persson

Let’s say Heinen and Ritchie cancel each-other out, as well as Sprong and Milano (though Milano has been a very nice surprise) and the same goes for Holzer and Irwin. Not counting Backes as he was acquired for his leadership and as a salary dump, we are then left with: Andersson, Djoos and Persson – you can see Murray was going after guys that are either good skaters and puck movers or are viewed as having potential to be specialists with the man advantage.

• Kid doing a Fortnite dance during a break
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• Brendan Guhle takes a bad penalty
• Trevor Carrick takes a penalty at the worst time possible
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• Dubious call goes against the Gulls
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• Tropp The Mic – Style Goal
• Zilch hot mic interlude – fastfood chat or beatboxing

On Andersson from EliteProspects:

Skilled defenseman who skates well. Has interesting offensive upside, with very good passing skills and the ability to lead the rush. Strong puck mover and plays well on the man advantage. (EP 2018)

(EP 2018)

On Persson from EliteProspects:

Persson is an offensive defenseman with a great shot from the point. With high-end puck skills and vision, he excels on the power play. Not a speedster, but owns decent mobility and can walk the blueline very well. On the downside, he is smallish and not much of a force in his own end.

Erik K. Piri (Elite Prospects, 2017)

And a quote from Murray after the deadline:

We don’t score. Our power play isn’t very good. We went out and got [Christian] Djoos and [Joel] Persson. They’re power-play type people we wanted to get a look at here right now. We were able to get a couple guys on the backend we could look at for the power play, so to speak

Bob Murray (nhl.com)

So on the shopping list this draft are goal scorers and power play specialists to complement what the Ducks have already existing in the system. One slightly nagging annoyance I have at these comments from Murray is that if he wanted goal scorers so bad – why did he not take Arthur Kaliyev when he could have at 29th overall? Instead the pure sniper went to the rival Kings just three picks later. But I digress. Let us look at what the Ducks have in the cupboards to see if there is anything else Murray should add to the list for Montreal.

Center Depth

For this exercise I am going to consider Sam Steel as graduated given he spent the entire season in Anaheim.

Trevor Zegras currently presides as the Ducks most prized prospect and with his signing a three year entry deal this past week, looks to jump right into the Ducks rebuild as soon as next season (or if the NHL/AHL resumes its current tenure – the end of this season). He had 36 points in 33 games as a Freshman on a so-so Boston University squad and a Team-USA leading 9 points in 5 games at the World Juniors. His uncanny ability to sneak passes through impossible seams and vision to create plays both on the rush and from a stand-still make him an exciting player to watch and hopefully the Ducks next franchise player, following in Ryan Getzlafs footsteps at the twilight of his career. He alone makes the center position the deepest it has been for the Ducks since the early Kesler era.

Following behind is Isac Lundestrom, who; although it might feel like he has been here for a while – is still only 20 years old. The 2018 23rd overall pick made an early transition to the North American game – coming over in the year of his draft and seeing 15 games with the Ducks and 12 with the Gulls. This season he saw another 15 games in Anaheim as injury cover, setting career highs in points with four. He saw 43 games with the Gulls – getting 21 points overall. He never projected as a top six center; in fact many felt the Ducks were playing it too safe when they selected him where they did but he has shown that he excels at protecting the puck on the rush and is prolific with zone entries in all scenarios while also being defensively responsible. At the very least he will make a good third or fourth line center in this new skill and speed heavy NHL.

Who follows next on the depth chart is debatable. In terms of potential talent – it would be Benoit Olivier Groulx; in terms of experience and potential readiness for the NHL – I would say Antoine Morand.

Groulx finished his final year in the QMJHL with a total 78 points in 55 games. Two points shy of the record 80 points in 65 games he put up last season. He was on track to surpass that total and if he played 65 games this season he might have hit 92 points if he continued at the 1.42 point per game rate he was ticking along at before the CHL was shutdown due to the Covid19 outbreak. For reference – in last years scoring race that would have left him tied for 6th overall. This years race was already a forgone conclusion with the likely 2020 first overall pick Alexis Lafrenière humbling all with his 112 points in 52 game performance. Groulx will join the Gulls next season and will bring a balance of both goal scoring and play-making as well as his highly valued two-way game to the line-up.

Morand impressed me the most of all the Gulls this season. He came in as a rookie and did not make the line-up right away but once he did, he fought tooth and nail to keep his spot. Night in and night out he was consistently the most hard working forward on the team and although he does not appear to inhibit a heck of a lot of game-breaking skill or speed, he does all of the little things right. He never quits on a play, causes opposing defenders nightmares with this tenacious forecheck and picked up the extra ice time left on the penalty kill when Kiefer Sherwood spent the later part of the season in Anaheim. He had 16 points in 54 games, second on the team in rookie scoring behind his childhood friend Max Comtois – not exactly league dominating numbers but other Gulls fans I think would agree. It wasn’t what he put on the scoreboard – it was how he drove play.

The recently signed Jack Badini likely comes next, he had an off-year in what would end up being his final year at College – falling short of his career high 20 points set last season. He finished his Junior campaign with 14 points in 31 games at Harvard, a scoring rate of 0.45 PPG. By comparison Brent Gates Jr had 0.82 PPG at his final year of College.

Alex Dostie is the same age as Badini and has already amassed 29 points in 118 games of AHL experience which should probably put him slightly above him in the depth chart but given his entry level deal is expiring this off-season, it remains to be seen whether or not the Ducks will keep him in the fold.

Overall – despite the the depth pool looking a little thin near the bottom; Zegras alone is keeping it afloat with Lundestrom and Groulx providing respectable cover such that Murray does not need to desperately target the position with any kind of over-zealous crack-fiend-like desperation or look to select another high-floor / low-ceiling safe-bet type pick. He can afford to take a flyer on a kid that might have had an injury shortened season or a smaller overlooked goal scorer.

On the Left

Thanks to selecting Brayden Tracey 29th overall at last years draft and the unexpected acquisition of former 16th overall selection Sonny Milano, the Ducks are looking a lot more stable on the left side all of a sudden.

For this exercise I am going to consider both Sonny Milano and Max Jones as graduated as I see neither spending any future time in the AHL unless it is for a conditioning stint.

Maxime Comtois remains the brightest spot on the left for the Ducks and our sister blog Crash The Pond even included him on the Ducks second line for their projected 2021-2022 opening lineup. Over this past season – his first year pro – the former Team Canada World Junior Captain added a further 29 games of NHL experience, contributing a well balanced five goals and six assists to his career totals. On the Gulls he finished the year with 24 points in 31 games, tops among Rookies on the team and tied for tenth league-wide among rookies in points per game with 0.77. He has shown a knack for finding the soft areas and offering a target for dangerous scoring opportunities as well as an aptitude for causing critical turnovers with his thunderous hits. Former Gull Jordan Samuels-Thomas wrote a great piece that also broke down just how smart he is with his defensive and transitional play. He likely spends more time in the NHL then AHL next year but the acquisition of Sonny Milano also muddies the water somewhat. Milano was mostly used on the right side but if the Ducks look to use him on his natural left-side then it comes down to a battle between Comtois and Jones – the same battle that Jones won out to start this past season.

Brayden Tracey had an up and down post-draft year. It began with his attending the Ducks Rookie Showcase in Irvine in September and impressing the Anaheim brass so much that he was inked to a three year entry level deal. He then sustained an injury during training camp and did not return to the WHL until mid to late October. Then his Moose Jaw Warriors unexpectedly struggled out of the gate – leading to a mid-season firing of head coach Tim Hunter and then the subsequent trade of Tracey along with a few other players to the Victoria Royals. He had 38 points in 28 games with the Warrios at the time of the trade and put up a further 23 points in 24 games in Victoria after the move. The Royals had clinched a playoff spot and were second in their division at the time of the lock-down. I was at the Rookie Showcase in September and liked what I saw of Tracey – he excelled in pretty much everything and did not look out of place despite being drastically over-matched physically by his older peers. He will turn 19 this May, meaning this will be his last season in the WHL, but I would imagine he gets at least a full year with the Gulls before he sees any time in the NHL.

Jack Kopacka and Blake McLaughlin round things out – much like the debate between Groulx and Morand as to who comes next on the depth chart; its a difference of experience and skill levels.

Blake McLaughlin set career highs in all categories for the Golden Gophers in his sophmore year. He finished fourth on the team in scoring with 24 points in 37 games, three of the eight goals he scored were game winners and the Gophers were 5-1-2 when he did score. He likely stays one more year at the University of Minnesota before looking to sign a pro deal with Anaheim. At this point his numbers translate to a bottom six player at best and I can see him spending at least two seasons with the Gulls before seeing NHL time.

Jack Kopacka – as you will know – I am a big fan of. He has shown tantalizing glimpses of the kind of player he can be through his now two full seasons with the Gulls. He is entering the final year of his entry level deal next season and – much like Alex Dostie and Devon Sideroff had to do this season – he will need to prove his worth to earn a new contract. The 2016 fourth round selection finished the year with 15 points in 37 games as well as an eight point in five game stint with Tulsa in the ECHL. Despite not blowing away his rookie season numbers, he definitely showed signs of improvement – particularly on the odd occasion where he completely took over a game – like one memorable night against the Stockton Heat. The most frustrating thing is his consistency, if he could play like that every game – he would be on the next bus to Anaheim. This next season is a huge turning point for the 22 year old winger.

Overall – the acquisition of Milano and steady development of Max Comtois sees the Ducks in OK shape on the left side. They are young enough that they need not worry too much about long term replacements right away. With a core of Rakell (26), Milano (23), Jones (22), Comtois (21) and the eventual Tracey (18), Anaheim won’t need to focus too hard on the left side. It would be nice of course – to have another bluechip prospect to complement the playmaking skill of Zegras down the middle and it just so happens that the undisputed number one pick for the upcoming draft is a Left Winger. But let’s not get our hopes up too much…

On the Right

Remember when the Ducks had an excess labour crisis on the right side? It was bemoaned by many in the fandom when the acquisition of Devon Shore last season meant the clearly NHL ready Kiefer Sherwood would be blocked from a full time roster spot. That is exactly what happened this season, with Sherwood only getting a brief recall after the trade deadline when a roster spot finally became available. The Ducks solved their dilemma at the most recent trade deadline by moving not one, but – count em – three right wings. Ondrej Kase, Devin Shore and Daniel Sprong. Coming back the other way was Danton Heinen. Suddenly the right side doesn’t look so deep anymore and with the graduation of Troy Terry – there isn’t really much help coming. Murray did make one interesting signing in an attempt to perhaps hold things over…

For this exercise I am considering both Troy Terry and Kiefer Sherwood as graduated. Neither player is waiver exempt after this season.

A week or so before lockdown, in what feels like forever ago, the Ducks made news by signing the undrafted 6’2″ 190lb twenty year old Bryce Kindopp to a three year entry level deal. He had 74 points in 63 games for the Everett Silvertips of the WHL at the time of the seasons unexpected end and was tied for 12th in league scoring while leading in game winning goals with 11. It is hard to judge those numbers given he was playing as an overager but the Ducks have generally done well with their undrafted signings in the past and particularly with their CHL scouting (with the most recent exception of one Kyle Olson). As it stands there wouldn’t be room for Kindopp on the Ducks roster at present so there is no need for him to make the jump right away but should any of Silfverberg, Terry, Heinen, Rowney or Sherwood go down with injury – he automatically slots in as next on the depth chart, which is I don’t know .. a bit worrying?

Deven Sideroff would be the only other realistic player to mention here but with the 2015 third round pick seeing another season cut short by injury and disappointing showings, it remains to be seen whether the Ducks or Gulls bring him back on a new deal. He had just 4 points in 16 games with the Gulls (2 points and 4 games less than his totals from last season) and 12 points in 18 games with Tulsa in the ECHL.

Jack Perbix is too far off on the radar to be considered depth or of any kind of immediate help. The 2018 fourth round pick just completed his freshman year at the University of Minnesota, collecting 7 points in 35 games.

Overall the Right Side is clearly the Ducks most critical point of need. You might think the blueline isn’t looking in that great of shape either, but the most recent trade deadline actually threw some duct tape on what was starting to be a gaping hole. Now the right side has sprung a leak and the Anaheim brass absolutely must be using that as their focus at the upcoming 2020 Draft. Like Murray said, they want goal scorers and power play specialists – they need that in the form of a few of guys that can play the right side.

What about the Blueline Pipeline?

Much has been made about what was once the envy of the league not more than four years ago now being reduced to one and a half pairings and some rotating spare parts. But as much as the drastic downfall has been entirely Murray’s fault, he has recently made some shrewd moves in an attempt to get things back on track.

For this example I am considering Jacob Larsson and Christian Djoos as graduated. Djoos has a Stanley Cup and over a hundred games of NHL experience, Larsson too has over a hundred games of NHL experience despite being just 22.

The Ducks have been patient with Mahura – or as patient as they could be through back to back years of injuries testing their shallow defensive depth. Through it all the 2016 third round pick has been resilient, in his second pro season he saw a further 11 games with the Ducks – adding 4 points to a now 9 career points total and putting up 21 points in 44 games with the Gulls. He looked a lot more polished than he did in his rookie year, his game more rounded and consistent. It also helped that he bulked up and did not shy away from the physical game down low. Of course he would still have the odd off night and there were moments where he lost his man or the compete was not there in his own zone; but during his stints with the Ducks I think he proved that he is ready. Ironically – whether there is now space on the Anaheim roster for him – remains to be seen…

It wasn’t a great year for the 22 year old former Buffalo Sabre. Guhle started the year in Anaheim and struggled in the first consistent ice time he had seen with his new club since experiencing a quad injury six games after his acquisition the season before. He was eventually sent to San Diego to get his confidence back and although he did not exactly dominate on a nightly basis, he did shore up his game somewhat, showing good speed and puck movement whilst also being strong defensively. He finished the year with 8 points in 30 games with the Ducks and 14 points in 27 games with the Gulls. In my opinion he has fallen behind Josh Mahura on the depth chart but in terms of style the two are generally interchangeable.

After Guhle and Mahura the next on the depth chart carries a little uncertainty. I could have gone with the newly acquired Joel Persson in terms of potential but I was not initially impressed with his defensive play in the few games I saw him play with the Gulls after his acquisition. In my opinion Simon Benoit has earned his standing as the next in line. The 21 year old followed up a phenomenal rookie season with a steady sophmore showing, setting career highs in goals (4), assists (15) and points (19) in less games played (56). At the production rate of 0.33 points per game he is estimated to have hit 22 points had the season not been abruptly cut short. Perhaps what was most impressive is he was at times relied upon to provide a mentoring presence for the very raw Hunter Drew and by seasons end was quite obviously developing great chemistry with the offensive-minded Joel Persson. Speaking of which..

At the time of Perssons acquisition I was slightly perturbed. I have watched the Gulls play Bakersfield multiple times over the season and Persson was not a player that had stood out to me, at all. He started the year in Edmonton after signing as an undrafted free agent the year before but was reassigned to the Condors through the season. He finished the year with 16 points in 27 games in Bakersfield and did not make the scoresheet in 7 games with the Gulls where he was used primarily on the first Power Play unit. Given Murray’s post deadline comments he was specifically targeted for his Power Play tools and could be someone to keep an eye on next year as he becomes more acclimated with his new club. From what I saw of him I can attest that he does add a new dimension to the Man Advantage and his ability to both distribute and coordinate from the point seems to be his best trait but he was very shaky defensively and will need a solid partner to offset any holes in that side of his game.

Drew didn’t set the world on fire in his first professional season, but he did enough to earn an entry level deal with the Ducks. The 21 year old sixth round pick in 2018 started out the year seeing consistent game time but soon found himself in the stands as the adjustment from Juniors to the AHL proved too much at times. He had a great showing at the Rookie Showcase in Irvine, becoming a quick fan favorite with his thunderous hits while also chipping in offensively. But the increased speed of the AHL exposed some flaws in his still raw tool-set. John Matisz of theScore wrote a great piece on him after he signed his deal and detailed the difficulties he experienced during his first pro season as well as what the Ducks see in him. All in all he had seven points in 29 games for the Gulls and four points in five games for Tulsa in the ECHL. The Ducks can afford to be patient with Drew and perhaps hope to have found another Josh Manson-esque diamond in the rough with the Kingston, Ontario native.

Andersson scored the first goal of his QMJHL career in the above clip and that was this past January – if you are wondering what took him so long – he appears to have had trouble staying healthy this past season and that was possibly why Boston was willing to move him. Taken just four picks after BO Groulx in the 2018 entry draft – he was described at the time as a “Brandon Montour type in the long term” – a smooth skating defender that loves to rush the puck and can command the point on the Power Play. But despite being drafted out of Europe and therefore eligible to play in the AHL the Bruins opted to loan him to Moncton – the Junior team who held his rights so he could acclimate to the North American game at a lower level. He had 24 points in 43 games for Moncton this season but was noted as needing to bulk up and add a more physical element to his game by several reports I read. As mentioned at the start of this article – he and Persson were mentioned in direct quotes by Murray as Power Play specialists that the Ducks hope to develop. Here is hoping that Andersson can live up to that potential.

Henry Thrun is looking like another potential late round steal, initially billed as a defensive defenseman the former USNDP blue liner has had a stellar year as a freshman at Harvard. He earned ECAC All-Rookie team honors by putting together a tidy 21 points in 31 games campaign, all while leading the Crimson in +/- with a +17. He will probably spend another year at Harvard, more likely two before turning pro but early signs are good that Anaheim have something special in the 2019 fourth round selection.

Jackson Lacombe gets final mention as a long term project with high reward upside. The converted forward finished with 13 points in 37 games as a Freshman with the Golden Gophers, closing the season ranked second on the team in scoring from the blue line.

Overall the Ducks blue-line is plenty stocked thanks to the moves made at the deadline and the most recent draft but – other than perhaps Thrun and potentially Lacombe if he pans out – is still missing that “believe the hype” special player on the horizon. Murray has been rumored to be heavily scouting Europe again and the name Helge Grans has come up as a potential draft target – but more on that as I go through my draft profiles in upcoming articles. I would suspect the Ducks take a Power Play specialist defenceman as a priority at the upcoming draft but only if one falls at one of their late first round and early second round selections.

In Goal

Finally we have the men between the pipes. Of all the roster positions I would consider this one the most secure for the Ducks. John Gibson is an all-world goaltender already at the top of his game and only just entering his prime, while Anthony Stolarz – despite my initial misgivings of his signing because of his injury history – appears more than ready and able to take the torch from Ryan Miller. While waiting in the wings, Lukas Dostal quietly makes “most exciting prospect goaltender” lists.

For this exercise I am considering Kevin Boyle sadly no longer with the Anaheim organization (Sorry Audrey 🙁 I will miss him too). He was in the final year of his two year extension and was surpassed by Stolarz on the depth chart this season – the writing appears to be on the wall for him and the only way I see him coming back is as a mentor for the young Dostal.

Anthony Stolarz had an almost perfect season – he finished tied for third in the AHL in wins and 6th in SV%, made the AHL All Star game and got a call up to the Ducks. I will be the first to admit I had extreme doubts about his ability given his previous seasons battles with staying healthy but the former Flyers draft pick won me over just as he won the Gulls starting position from the incumbent Kevin Boyle. He finished the year with a 21-12-6 record in 39 starts and an impressive 0.921 save percentage. It has not been officially announced but the general understanding is Ryan Miller is likely to announce his retirement and Stolarz will back up John Gibson next season.

Lukas Dostal has quietly been making headlines for the entire season and was most recently named the Finnish league’s top goaltender, getting 27 wins while posting a stingy 1.78 GAA and remarkable 0.928 save percentage as a 19 year old. He is relatively small by today’s standards for goaltenders but he makes up for it with quickness and sound positioning. The timing is right for the 2018 third round pick to make his way to North America with the San Diego Gulls number one position likely up for grabs. So although Gulls fans will be sad to see the potential departure of Kevin Boyle – have heart that Dostal appears to be a fun loving kid and scenes like the end of that highlights video is something I can really see the Pechanga Faithful getting behind.

Eriksson Ek spent the year in Tulsa of the ECHL – splitting duties with their veteran netminder. By seasons end he accumulated 10 wins in 27 starts while sporting a 3.01 GAA (16th in the league) and a somewhat respectable 0.902 Save Percentage (20th in the league). Those numbers might not seem great but the ECHL is notorious for making goalies look bad – the lack of structure and … well defense in general kind of skews things. That said – this next season is an important one for the Ducks 2017 fifth round pick as he looks to move up the ladder in the organization and I wouldn’t rule him out just yet. Let’s not forget Kevin Boyle had a .908 save percentage in 16 games of action in the ECHL just three seasons ago.

Roman Durny is a distant shadow on the depth chart, in his first pro season he saw just 13 games of action for the unaffiliated Norfolk Admirals, getting three wins and posting a dismal 4.02 GAA and 0.881 SV%.

Overall – The Ducks look to have their heir apparent to John Gibson in Lukas Dostal and although they are not in desperate need to find more talent to add to their depth I can see them making at least one goaltender selection at the upcoming draft given they skipped over the position in the last draft. The organizational hierarchy is at a crossroads with the likely retirement of Miller and promotion of Stolarz. I for one would love to see Kevin Boyle brought back on at least a one year deal to mentor Dostal in San Diego whilst Eriksson Ek has more time to develop his game – hopefully in a starting role on an ECHL squad.

One Last Thing

I know a lot of people don’t put a heck of a lot of stock into the balance of right and left shooting players on a roster but one thing I have noticed over the course of researching this piece is the Ducks have a slight disparity among the two type of skaters. Going by the EliteProspects depth chart they have 31 left shooting players and 24 right shooters, the positions are relatively balanced between the two for the most part but as already widely known – the defensive pool has a 12 to 8 bias toward the left.

Conclusion

It took a while to get there but breaking it down I see the Ducks shopping list looking like this for the upcoming draft.

• Pure goal scoring right shot sniper – either a Center or winger that prefers to play the right side.
• Power Play specialist blue liner with a better than average defensive game.
• Take a flyer on an undersized or potentially overlooked due to injury-shortened season forward with exciting offensive abilities.
• Right shooting all-round defender with unexplored but offensive upside.
• Goaltender with size and athletic ability if one falls in the range of the fourth round pick acquired in the Derek Grant trade.
• Natural Right Wing in one of the fifth or sixth round – either overlooked due to size or skating ability.
• Late bloomer right shooting defender.

Follow along with me in the coming weeks as I publish draft profiles for 2020 NHL entry draft profiles that I see the Ducks as potentially targeting based off of these needs.

Let me know if you agree or disagree with anything I have said here, either in the comments or hit me up on twitter @defendthenestSD or on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/defendthenestSD/